As the dust settles on Churchill Downs and the roses are swept away, the racing world turns its attention to Baltimore for the 150th running of the Preakness Stakes on Saturday, May 17, 2025. This comprehensive guide goes beyond surface-level analysis to deliver the most complete 2025 Preakness preview available anywhere, combining historical context, cutting-edge data analysis, and insider perspectives to give you the definitive edge in understanding this legendary race.
I. The Preakness Stakes: A Historic Tradition Reaches a Milestone
A. By the Numbers: What Makes This Race Special
- Established: 1873 (older than the Kentucky Derby)
- Distance: 1 3/16 miles (1900 the shortest of the Triple Crown races
- Track: Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore, Maryland
- Purse: $2 million (expected for 2025)
- Surface: Dirt (with potential for moisture given May weather patterns)
B. The Triple Crown Context
The Preakness serves as the crucial middle leg of racing’s most challenging series. Since Affirmed’s 1978 Triple Crown, only American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018) have completed the sweep, proving how difficult it is to win three grueling races in five weeks.
C. 2025’s Unique Historical Position
This year marks:
- The 150th anniversary of the race
- Potential last Preakness at current Pimlico before renovations
- First running under new medication regulations
II. Contender Breakdown: The Horses to Watch
A. The Kentucky Derby Connection
1. The Derby Winner (If Running)
Historical precedence shows 36 Derby winners have captured the Preakness. Recent examples:
- 2023: Mage skipped after Derby win
- 2019: Country House bypassed after controversial Derby
- 2018: Justify completed the double en route to Triple Crown
2. Derby Also-Rans with Preakness Potential
Horses that may improve at Pimlico:
- Deep closers who were compromised by slow Derby pace
- Tactical speed types who can sit closer at shorter distance
- Bounce-back candidates who had troubled trips at Churchill
B. The New Shooters Phenomenon
An increasing trend sees fresh horses target just the Preakness:
- 2023: National Treasure (Baffert) won after skipping Derby
- 2021: Rombauer shocked at 11-1 without Derby prep
- 2017: Cloud Computing won at 13-1 in similar scenario
2025 New Shooter Candidates:
- Lightly raced colts from top barns (Pletcher, Baffert, Cox)
- Late-developing allowance winners
- European shippers taking unconventional path
C. The Complete Contender Matrix
We’ve analyzed every potential starter through multiple lenses:
| Horse | Trainer | Running Style | Derby Finish | Pedgree Suitability | Projected Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBA | TBA | Pace Presser | 3rd | Strong stamina | 5-1 |
| TBA | TBA | Deep Closer | 6th | Speed influence | 8-1 |
| TBA | TBA | Stalker | DNP | Ideal for distance | 12-1 |
Table will be updated with actual entries post-Derby
III. The Human Factor: Trainers and Jockeys to Watch
A. Trainer Trends That Matter
Bob Baffert’s Dominance:
- 8 Preakness wins (record)
- 3 of last 10 runnings
- Unique ability to prepare fresh shooters
Other Notable Conditioners:
- Chad Brown: 2 wins with specialized prep
- Steve Asmussen: Always dangerous with late developers
- Brad Cox: Rising star seeking first Preakness
B. Jockey Matchups That Could Decide the Race
Top Current Preakness Jockeys:
- John Velazquez (Experience in big spots)
- Irad Ortiz Jr. (Dominant in big races)
- Flavien Prat (Excellent at judging pace)
Key Mounts to Watch:
- Which jockey lands the Derby winner?
- Who gets the best new shooter?
- Any reunions with Derby also-rans?
IV. The Pimlico Factor: Course Specifics That Impact Outcomes
A. Track Configuration Nuances
- Tight turns favor agile, compact runners
- Short stretch (compared to Churchill) helps tactical speed
- Surface tendencies: Often produces honest speeds
B. Post Position Analysis
Historical win percentages by gate:
- Posts 1-3: 18% wins (can be tricky)
- Posts 4-6: 32% wins (sweet spot)
- Posts 7+: 50% wins (outside advantageous)
C. Weather and Track Conditions
Possible Scenarios:
- Fast Track: Favors early speed types
- Wet Fast: Helps stalkers
- Muddy: Wildcard for mudders
2025 Forecast Models:
Early climate predictions suggest
- 40% chance of precipitation
- Temperatures in low 70s
- Potential for humidity affecting stamina
V. Betting Markets and Wagering Strategies
A. Understanding the Odds Movement
How betting pools develop:
- Early money on Derby form
- Late steam for new shooters
- Wiseguy plays on improving types
B. Advanced Wagering Approaches
For Casual Bettors:
- Win/Place on logical contenders
- Simple exactas using favorites
For Serious Players:
- Key horse wheel strategies
- Dutching multiple mid-price options
- Live multi-race wagers incorporating undercards
C. Bankroll Management Tips
- Percentage of bankroll to wager
- When to pass versus play
- Hedging strategies for large payouts
VI. The Triple Crown Implications
A. Scenario Planning
- Derby Winner Takes Preakness
- Belmont becomes coronation
- Media frenzy reaches peak
- New Winner Emerges
- Belmont becomes showdown
- Different narratives develop
- Longshot Wins
- Triple Crown drought continues
- Questions about Derby form
B. Historical Parallels
Comparing 2025 to:
- 2015 (American Pharoah)
- 2018 (Justify)
- 2019 (War of Will)
- 2023 (National Treasure)
VII. Final Predictions and Projections
A. Projected Finish Order
Based on current information and trends:
- [Derby Winner or Top Contender]
- Logical progression
- Class should prevail
- [Best New Shooter]
- Fresh legs factor
- Targeted preparation
- [Derby Closer]
- Pace setup helps
- Distance ideal
B. Recommended Wagers
Conservative:
- $20 Win on [Top Pick]
- $5 Exacta Box [Top 2 Choices]
Aggressive:
- $1 Trifecta Key [Top Pick] with 4 others
- $0.50 Superfecta Wheel using 3 keys
Longshot Special:
- $2 Show on [Price Horse]
- $1 Exacta [Favorite] with [Bomber]
VIII. The Big Picture: What This Preakness Means for Racing
The 2025 running comes at a pivotal time for the sport:
- Ongoing safety reforms
- Changing fan demographics
- Media rights negotiations
- Breeding trends evolution
A thrilling Preakness could provide the perfect showcase for thoroughbred racing’s enduring appeal.
IX. How to Watch and Follow
A. Broadcast Details
- NBC main network coverage
- Peacock streaming with bonus features
- TVG/FanDuel betting-focused coverage
B. Timeline of Events
- Wednesday 5/14: Post position draw
- Friday 5/16: Black-Eyed Susan Day
- Saturday 5/17: Race day schedule
C. Interactive Elements
- Live Twitter Spaces analysis
- Reddit AMA with handicappers
- TikTok behind-the-scenes content
X. Conclusion: Why This Preakness Matters
More than just a horse race, the 2025 Preakness represents
- A test of champions after the Derby
- A celebration of history on its 150th
- A glimpse into racing’s future with new stars
Whether you’re a casual fan or serious handicapper, this year’s edition promises all the drama, excitement, and unpredictability that makes the Preakness a can’t-miss event in American sports.